MeritValue

Abacus Global Management, Inc.

ABXdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Abacus Global Management, Inc. earns about 3% on equity, but has diluted owners by 97% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$44.7M1$66.4M2$111.9M3$235.2M3
Net income$15.8M4$31.7M5$9.52M6−$24M7$36.5M7
Operating cash flow−$1.24M8$10.7M9−$64M10−$208.8M11−$25.7M11
Capital expenditure—$012$189,67413$786,23614$931,44314
Free cash flow (derived)—$10.7M9−$64.2M10−$209.6M11−$26.6M11
Total debt—$015$016$761.6M17$811.6M17
Cash & equivalents$102,42018$30.1M19$25.6M20$131.9M21$38.1M21
Diluted shares—50.4M57.8M70.8M99.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$42.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.68
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.68
Debt you’d be carrying
$81.79

10 shares is a claim on $42.18 of net worth that earned you $3.68 and generated −$2.68 of cash last year, against $81.79 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
3% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 6%FY24 -6%FY25 9%

It earned an average 3% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+97% shares · 5y

Share count is up 97% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$1.64
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$15.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$5.9
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001814287-24-000035 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001814287-25-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017775 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-005819 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001814287-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001814287-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017775 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-005819 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001814287-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001814287-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017775 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001814287-24-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001814287-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017775 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001814287-24-000035 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001814287-25-000006 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017775 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001814287-24-000035 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001814287-24-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001814287-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017775 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)