MeritValue

Arbutus Biopharma Corp

ABUSdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Arbutus Biopharma Corp earns about -56% on equity, but has diluted owners by 80% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11M1$39M2$18.1M3$6.17M4$14.1M4
Net income−$76.2M5−$69.5M6−$72.8M7−$69.9M8−$33.5M8
Operating cash flow−$67.5M9−$35.4M10−$85.9M11−$64.9M12−$39.6M12
Capital expenditure$809,00013$512,00014$1.01M15$182,00016$016
Free cash flow (derived)−$68.3M9−$35.9M10−$86.9M11−$65M12−$39.6M12
Total debt$017$018$019$020$021
Cash & equivalents$109.3M22$30.8M23$26.3M24$36.3M25$18M25
Diluted shares106.2M150.9M166.0M185.6M191.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$4
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.75
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.07
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $4 of net worth that earned you −$1.75 and generated −$2.07 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-56% avg · 5y
FY21 -45%FY22 -51%FY23 -69%FY24 -72%FY25 -44%

It earned an average -56% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+80% shares · 5y

Share count is up 80% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001447028-23-000018 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001447028-24-000035 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001447028-25-000083 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001447028-26-000017 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001447028-23-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001447028-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001447028-25-000083 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001447028-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001447028-23-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001447028-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001447028-25-000083 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001447028-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001447028-23-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001447028-24-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001447028-25-000083 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001447028-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001447028-22-000019 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001447028-23-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001447028-24-000035 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001447028-25-000083 (LongTermDebt)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001447028-26-000017 (LongTermDebt)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001447028-23-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001447028-24-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001447028-25-000083 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  25. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001447028-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)