MeritValue

American Bitcoin Corp.

ABTCdata completeness 75%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

American Bitcoin Corp. earns about -14% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 70494% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17.6M1$13.6M1$65M2$71.5M2$185.2M2
Net income−$31.3M3−$79.1M4$39.6M5$428.9M5−$153.2M5
Operating cash flow−$8.17M6−$10.9M7−$56M8−$54M8−$79.6M8
Capital expenditure$39,2639$31,8849$1.89M10$6.61M11—
Free cash flow (derived)−$8.21M6−$10.9M7−$57.9M8−$60.6M8—
Total debt$34.6M12$29.2M13$10.3M14——
Cash & equivalents$12.6M15$267,00016$915,00016$735,00016$3.82M17
Diluted shares1.3M146,393891.8M891.8M905.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$7.36
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.69
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $7.36 of net worth that earned you −$1.69 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-14% avg · 5y
FY21 -32%FY22 -67%FY23 4%FY24 43%FY25 -20%

It earned an average -14% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+70494% shares · 5y

Share count is up 70494% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 70% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-021526 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-127278 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-016675 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028732 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-127278 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-021526 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028732 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-127278 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-021526 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-026404 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-127278 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-021526 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028732 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-028732 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-021526 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-026404 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-127278 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)