MeritValue

Absci Corp

ABSIdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Absci Corp earns about -59% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 175% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.01M1$4.53M2$5.72M3$4.53M4$2.8M4
Net income−$101M5−$104.9M6−$110.6M7−$103.1M8−$115.2M8
Operating cash flow−$60.6M9−$81.3M10−$64.6M11−$72.4M12−$92.9M12
Capital expenditure$38M13$16.2M14$860,00015$404,00016$1.11M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$98.6M9−$97.5M10−$65.5M11−$72.8M12−$94M12
Total debt$3.52M17$10.9M18$7.92M19$3.99M20—
Cash & equivalents$252.6M21$60M22$72.4M23$41.2M24$20M24
Diluted shares49.7M90.8M92.0M110.2M136.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$13.85
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$8.42
Free cash flow it threw off
−$6.87
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $13.85 of net worth that earned you −$8.42 and generated −$6.87 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-59% avg · 5y
FY21 -72%FY22 -37%FY23 -77%FY24 -57%FY25 -54%

It earned an average -59% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+175% shares · 5y

Share count is up 175% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 13% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009908 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012366 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013464 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001672688-26-000068 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009908 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012366 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013464 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001672688-26-000068 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009908 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012366 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013464 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001672688-26-000068 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009908 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012366 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013464 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001672688-26-000068 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-006925 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009908 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012366 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013464 (LongTermDebt)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009908 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012366 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013464 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001672688-26-000068 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)