MeritValue

ARBOR REALTY TRUST INC

ABRdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

ARBOR REALTY TRUST INC earns about 11% on equity, but has diluted owners by 34% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $17.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$377.8M1$353.8M2$400.6M3$283.9M3$157.8M3
Operating cash flow$216.8M4$1.1B5$235.9M6$461.5M6$372.4M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$12.1B7—$12B8$9.96B9$11.1B10
Cash & equivalents$404.6M11$534.4M12$929M12$503.8M12$482.9M12
Diluted shares156.1M199.1M218.8M205.5M209.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$140.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.53
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$528.04

10 shares is a claim on $140.81 of net worth that earned you $7.53 last year, against $528.04 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
11% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 12%FY23 13%FY24 9%FY25 5%

It earned an average 11% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+34% shares · 5y

Share count is up 34% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$17.48
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$353.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$13.32
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005456 (ProfitLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007183 (ProfitLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001253986-26-000019 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005456 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007183 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001253986-26-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-024981 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005456 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007183 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001253986-26-000019 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-007183 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001253986-26-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)