MeritValue

Airbnb, Inc.

ABNBdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Airbnb, Inc. earns about 264% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $41.77 and $78.02 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.99B1$8.4B2$9.92B3$11.1B3$12.2B3
Net income−$352M4$1.89B5$4.79B6$2.65B6$2.51B6
Operating cash flow$2.31B7$3.43B8$3.88B9$4.52B9$4.65B9
Capital expenditure$25M10$25M10———
Free cash flow (derived)$2.29B7$3.41B8———
Total debt$3.98B11$1.99B12$1.99B13$2B14$2B14
Cash & equivalents$6.07B15$7.38B16$6.87B17$6.86B18$6.56B18
Diluted shares616.0M680.0M662.0M645.0M623.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$131.61
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$40.3
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$32.09

10 shares is a claim on $131.61 of net worth that earned you $40.3 last year, against $32.09 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
264% avg · 5y
FY21 -9%FY22 1120%FY23 64%FY24 75%FY25 69%

It earned about 264% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 50% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $41.77 and $78.02 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$78.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.29B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$72.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$2.29B
Earnings Power Value
$41.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.51B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $72.49
The three cases
Bear0.0%$59.79
Base5.0%$72.49
Bull10.0%$87.69

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001559720-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001559720-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001559720-26-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001559720-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001559720-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001559720-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001559720-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001559720-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001559720-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001559720-23-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001559720-23-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001559720-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001559720-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001559720-26-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001559720-23-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001559720-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001559720-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001559720-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)