MeritValue

ABM INDUSTRIES INC /DE/

ABMdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'

The thesis, from the filings

ABM INDUSTRIES INC /DE/ earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.48 and $26.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.23B1$7.81B2$8.1B3$8.36B3$8.75B3
Net income$126.3M4$230.4M5$251.3M6$81.4M6$162.4M6
Operating cash flow$314.3M7$20.4M8$243.3M9$226.7M9$234.4M9
Capital expenditure$34.3M10$50.8M11$52.6M12$59.4M12$79.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$280M7−$30.4M8$190.7M9$167.3M9$155.1M9
Total debt$915.6M13$1.45B14$1.31B15$1.33B16$1.57B16
Cash & equivalents$62.8M17$73M18$69.5M19$64.6M20$104.1M20
Diluted shares68.0M67.5M66.3M63.6M62.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$284.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.9
Free cash flow it threw off
$24.74
Debt you’d be carrying
$249.84

10 shares is a claim on $284.78 of net worth that earned you $25.9 and generated $24.74 of cash last year, against $249.84 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 8%FY23 10%FY24 3%FY25 5%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 71% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.48 and $26.59 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$167.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$14.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$167.3M
Earnings Power Value
$26.59
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$162.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$41.58
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $14.3
The three cases
Bear0.0%$14.3
Base0.0%$14.3
Bull5.0%$23.39

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000771497-23-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000771497-24-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000771497-25-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000771497-23-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000771497-24-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000771497-25-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000771497-23-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000771497-24-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000771497-25-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000771497-23-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000771497-24-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000771497-25-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000771497-22-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000771497-23-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000771497-24-000029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-10-31 · accession 0000771497-25-000031 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0000771497-22-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0000771497-23-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0000771497-24-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-10-31 · accession 0000771497-25-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)