MeritValue

ABB LTD

ABLZFdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ABB LTD earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~10% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $20 and $52.12 a share. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2019FY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023
Revenue$28B1$26.1B2$28.9B3$29.4B3$32.2B3
Net income$1.53B4$5.21B5$4.65B6$2.59B6$3.82B6
Operating cash flow$2.33B7$1.69B8$3.33B9$1.29B9$4.29B9
Capital expenditure$762M10$694M11$820M12$762M12$770M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.56B7,10$999M8,11$2.51B9,12$525M9,12$3.52B9,12
Total debt$19.6B13,14,15,16,17$13.4B18,19,20,21,22$12.4B23,24,25,26,27$16.2B28,24,29,30,31$15.4B28,29,30,31
Cash & equivalents$3.51B32$3.28B33$4.16B34$4.16B35$3.89B35
Diluted shares2.13B2.12B2.02B1.91B1.87B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$71.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.48
Free cash flow it threw off
$18.85
Debt you’d be carrying
$82.71

10 shares is a claim on $71.83 of net worth that earned you $20.48 and generated $18.85 of cash last year, against $82.71 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY19 4%FY20 2%FY21 20%FY22 11%FY23 15%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~10% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−13% shares · 5y

Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 21% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20 and $52.12 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a conservative ceiling on what a defensive investor should pay, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$52.12
assumptions (10)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.24%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Terminal growth2.50%
  • Projection period10 years
  • FCF growth17.1%
  • Starting free cash flow$2.51B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$29.6
assumptions (10)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.24%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Terminal growth2.50%
  • Projection period5 years
  • FCF growth17.1%
  • Starting free cash flow$2.51B
Earnings Power Value
$20
assumptions (8)
  • Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.24%
  • Equity risk premium5.00%
  • Beta (β)1.00
  • Equity share of capital85.0%
  • Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
  • Tax rate21.0%
  • Normalized earnings$3.82B
  • Growth assumed0.0%
Graham Number
$18.15
assumptions (1)
  • Graham multiplier (P/E × P/B)22.5×

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.1%
Discount rate (WACC)9.50%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $29.6
The three cases
Bear0.0%$11.47
Base17.1%$29.6
Bull20.0%$33.83

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F filed 2022-02-25 · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-026793 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F filed 2023-02-24 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-024840 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F filed 2024-02-23 · periods ending 2021-12-31, 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-026633 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F filed 2022-02-25 · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-026793 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F filed 2023-02-24 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-024840 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 20-F filed 2024-02-23 · periods ending 2021-12-31, 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-026633 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F filed 2022-02-25 · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-026793 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F filed 2023-02-24 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-024840 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F filed 2024-02-23 · periods ending 2021-12-31, 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-026633 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F filed 2022-02-25 · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-026793 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 20-F filed 2023-02-24 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-024840 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 20-F filed 2024-02-23 · periods ending 2021-12-31, 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-026633 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 20-F filed 2021-02-26 · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001104659-21-028374 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F filed 2021-02-26 · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001104659-21-028374 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 20-F filed 2021-02-26 · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001104659-21-028374 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 20-F filed 2021-02-26 · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001104659-21-028374 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 20-F filed 2021-02-26 · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001104659-21-028374 (DebtCurrent)
  18. 20-F filed 2022-02-25 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-026793 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 20-F filed 2022-02-25 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-026793 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  20. 20-F filed 2022-02-25 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-026793 (LongTermDebt)
  21. 20-F filed 2022-02-25 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-026793 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  22. 20-F filed 2022-02-25 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-026793 (DebtCurrent)
  23. 20-F filed 2023-02-24 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-024840 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  24. 20-F filed 2023-02-24 · periods ending 2021-12-31, 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-024840 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  25. 20-F filed 2023-02-24 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-024840 (LongTermDebt)
  26. 20-F filed 2023-02-24 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-024840 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  27. 20-F filed 2023-02-24 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-024840 (DebtCurrent)
  28. 20-F filed 2024-02-23 · periods ending 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-026633 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  29. 20-F filed 2024-02-23 · periods ending 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-026633 (LongTermDebt)
  30. 20-F filed 2024-02-23 · periods ending 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-026633 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  31. 20-F filed 2024-02-23 · periods ending 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-026633 (DebtCurrent)
  32. 20-F filed 2021-02-26 · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001104659-21-028374 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  33. 20-F filed 2022-02-25 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-026793 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  34. 20-F filed 2023-02-24 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-024840 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  35. 20-F filed 2024-02-23 · periods ending 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-026633 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)