Able View Global Inc.

ABLVdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Able View Global Inc. earns about 274% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 31% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.37 and $1.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$117.3M1$145.3M2$129.3M3$126.8M3$105.2M3
Net income$8.7M4$7.9M5$9.75M6−$7.42M6$820,0186
Operating cash flow−$1.9M7−$12.8M8$23.6M9−$2.24M9$1.2M9
Capital expenditure$174,90010$195,64011$66,98212$65,85712$27,17112
Free cash flow (derived)−$2.07M7−$13M8$23.5M9−$2.31M9$1.17M9
Total debt$15.7M13$2.88M14$10.2M15$11.4M15
Cash & equivalents$6.72M16$5.77M17$13.3M18$15.2M19$9.01M19
Diluted shares37.7M37.7M39.5M42.6M49.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.17
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.24
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.32

10 shares is a claim on $1.57 of net worth that earned you $0.17 and generated $0.24 of cash last year, against $2.32 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
274% avg · 5y
FY21 376%FY22 64%FY23 968%FY24 -35%FY25 -5%

It earned about 274% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+31% shares · 5y

Share count is up 31% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 27% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.37 and $1.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.17M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.17M
Earnings Power Value
$1.64
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$0.27
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.37
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.28
Base5.0%$0.37
Bull10.0%$0.46

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037882 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-034677 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048085 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037882 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-034677 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048085 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037882 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-034677 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048085 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037882 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-034677 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048085 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037882 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-034677 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048085 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-034677 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037882 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-034677 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048085 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)