MeritValue

ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC

ABGdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $281.48 and $592.75 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$9.84B1$15.4B2$14.8B2$17.2B2$18B3
Net income$532.4M4$997.3M5$602.5M6$430.3M6$492M6
Operating cash flow$1.16B7$696M8$313M9$671.2M9$775.2M9
Capital expenditure$74.2M10$94.6M11$142.3M11——
Free cash flow (derived)$1.09B7$601.4M8$170.7M9——
Total debt$3.41B12$3.29B12$3.23B13——
Cash & equivalents$178.9M14$235.3M15$45.7M15$69.4M15$40.4M15
Diluted shares20.1M22.4M21.0M20.0M19.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,985.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$251.02
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $1,985.66 of net worth that earned you $251.02 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 19%FY23 11%FY24 13%FY25 13%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $281.48 and $592.75 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$592.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$601.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$546.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$601.4M
Earnings Power Value
$281.48
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$532.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$335.07
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $546.58
The three cases
Bear0.0%$440.46
Base5.0%$546.58
Bull10.0%$673.55

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001144980-24-000076 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001144980-25-000077 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001144980-26-000051 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001144980-24-000076 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001144980-25-000077 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001144980-26-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001144980-24-000076 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001144980-25-000077 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001144980-26-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001144980-23-000080 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001144980-24-000076 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001144980-23-000080 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001144980-24-000076 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001144980-25-000077 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001144980-26-000051 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)