MeritValue

Ameris Bancorp

ABCBdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Ameris Bancorp earns about 31% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $54.1 and $92.72 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$703.1M1$893.9M2$1.28B3$1.38B3$1.39B3
Net income$376.9M4$346.5M5$269.1M6$358.7M6$412.2M6
Operating cash flow$9.14M7$1.06B8$569M9$154.2M9$390.2M9
Capital expenditure$25.4M10$13.6M11$17.5M12$13.5M12$20.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$16.3M7$1.05B8$551.4M9$140.7M9$369.6M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$4.06B13$1.12B14$1.17B14$1.22B14$1.09B14
Diluted shares69.8M69.4M69.1M69.1M68.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$593.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$59.99
Free cash flow it threw off
$53.8
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $593.26 of net worth that earned you $59.99 and generated $53.8 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
31% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 20%FY23 27%FY24 39%FY25 38%

It earned about 31% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $54.1 and $92.72 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$86.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$369.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$92.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$369.6M
Earnings Power Value
$54.1
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$358.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$89.49
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $92.72
The three cases
Bear0.0%$92.72
Base0.0%$92.72
Bull5.0%$111.32

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000351569-24-000006 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000351569-25-000006 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000351569-26-000050 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000351569-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000351569-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000351569-26-000050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000351569-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000351569-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000351569-26-000050 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000351569-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000351569-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000351569-26-000050 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000351569-25-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000351569-26-000050 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)