MeritValue

AbbVie Inc.

ABBVdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

AbbVie Inc. earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $28.16 and $106.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$56.2B1$58.1B2$54.3B3$56.3B3$61.2B3
Net income$11.5B4$11.8B5$4.86B6$4.28B6$4.23B6
Operating cash flow$22.8B7$24.9B8$22.8B9$18.8B9$19B9
Capital expenditure$787M10$695M11$777M12$974M12$1.21B12
Free cash flow (derived)$22B7$24.2B8$22.1B9$17.8B9$17.8B9
Total debt$76B13$63.1B14$59.2B15$66.8B16$67B17
Cash & equivalents$9.75B18$9.2B19$12.8B20$5.52B21$5.23B21
Diluted shares1.78B1.78B1.77B1.77B1.77B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$18.44
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.84
Free cash flow it threw off
$100.49
Debt you’d be carrying
$377.9

10 shares is a claim on −$18.44 of net worth that earned you $23.84 and generated $100.49 of cash last year, against $377.9 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 19%FY23 12%FY24 10%FY25 10%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 12% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $28.16 and $106.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$96.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$17.8B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$106.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$17.8B
Earnings Power Value
$28.16
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.86B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $106.96
The three cases
Bear0.0%$106.96
Base0.0%$106.96
Bull5.0%$141.23

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001551152-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001551152-25-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001551152-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001551152-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001551152-25-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001551152-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001551152-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001551152-25-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001551152-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001551152-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001551152-25-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001551152-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001551152-22-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001551152-23-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001551152-24-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001551152-25-000020 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001551152-26-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001551152-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001551152-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001551152-25-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001551152-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)