ABB LTD
ABBNYdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
ABB LTD earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.9 and $56.72 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28B1 | $26.1B2 | $28.9B3 | $29.4B3 | $32.2B3 |
| Net income | $1.53B4 | $5.21B5 | $4.65B6 | $2.59B6 | $3.82B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $2.33B7 | $1.69B8 | $3.33B9 | $1.29B9 | $4.29B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $762M10 | $694M11 | $820M12 | $762M12 | $770M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $1.56B7 | $999M8 | $2.51B9 | $525M9 | $3.52B9 |
| Total debt | $19.6B13 | $13.4B14 | $12.4B15 | $16.2B16 | $15.4B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $3.51B17 | $3.28B18 | $4.16B19 | $4.16B20 | $3.89B20 |
| Diluted shares | 2.13B | 2.12B | 2.02B | 1.91B | 1.87B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $71.83 of net worth that earned you $20.48 and generated $18.85 of cash last year, against $82.71 of debt.
It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 21% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.9 and $56.72 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.8%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth17.1%
- fcfBase$2.51B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.8%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth17.1%
- fcfBase$2.51B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.8%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$3.82B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $12.6 |
| Base | 17.1% | $32.06 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $36.61 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 17.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-026793 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-024840 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-026633 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-026793 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-024840 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-026633 (ProfitLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-026793 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-024840 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-026633 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-026793 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-024840 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-026633 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001104659-21-028374 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-026793 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-024840 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-026633 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 20-F · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001104659-21-028374 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-026793 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-024840 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-026633 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)