MeritValue

Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc.

AARDdata completeness 88%2 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Aardvark Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -54% on equity, but has diluted owners by 391% over 2 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.41M1$02
Net income−$20.6M3−$57.6M3
Operating cash flow−$18.1M4−$54.2M4
Capital expenditure$109,0005$95,0005
Free cash flow (derived)−$18.2M4−$54.3M4
Total debt——
Cash & equivalents$61.6M6$47.1M6
Diluted shares4.0M19.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$54.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$29.35
Free cash flow it threw off
−$27.65
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $54.34 of net worth that earned you −$29.35 and generated −$27.65 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-54% avg · 2y
FY24 —FY25 -54%

It earned an average -54% on equity over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+391% shares · 2y

Share count is up 391% over 2 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 2 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119770 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119770 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119770 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119770 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119770 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119770 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)