Apple Inc.
AAPLdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'
Apple Inc. earns about 47% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $66.78 and $94.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $365.8B1 | $394.3B2 | $383.3B3 | $391B3 | $416.2B3 |
| Net income | $94.7B4 | $99.8B5 | $97B6 | $93.7B6 | $112B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $104B7 | $122.2B8 | $110.5B9 | $118.3B9 | $111.5B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $11.1B10 | $10.7B11 | $11B12 | $9.45B12 | $12.7B12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $93B7 | $111.4B8 | $99.6B9 | $108.8B9 | $98.8B9 |
| Total debt | $124.7B13 | $230.2B14 | $216.2B15 | $203.3B16 | $189.3B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $34.9B17 | $23.6B18 | $30B19 | $29.9B20 | $35.9B20 |
| Diluted shares | 16.86B | 16.33B | 15.81B | 15.41B | 15.00B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $49.14 of net worth that earned you $74.65 and generated $65.82 of cash last year, against $126.18 of debt.
It earned about 47% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 52% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $66.78 and $94.27 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth2.3%
- fcfBase$99.6B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth2.3%
- fcfBase$99.6B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$97B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $84.18 |
| Base | 2.3% | $94.27 |
| Bull | 7.3% | $119.12 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 2.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000320193-23-000106 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000320193-24-000123 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000320193-25-000079 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000320193-23-000106 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000320193-24-000123 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000320193-25-000079 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000320193-23-000106 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000320193-24-000123 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000320193-25-000079 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000320193-23-000106 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000320193-24-000123 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000320193-25-000079 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000320193-22-000108 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000320193-23-000106 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000320193-24-000123 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0000320193-25-000079 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000320193-22-000108 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000320193-23-000106 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000320193-24-000123 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0000320193-25-000079 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)