MeritValue

Apple Inc.

AAPLdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Apple Inc. earns about 47% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $66.37 and $93.34 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$365.8B1$394.3B2$383.3B3$391B3$416.2B3
Net income$94.7B4$99.8B5$97B6$93.7B6$112B6
Operating cash flow$104B7$122.2B8$110.5B9$118.3B9$111.5B9
Capital expenditure$11.1B10$10.7B11$11B12$9.45B12$12.7B12
Free cash flow (derived)$93B7$111.4B8$99.6B9$108.8B9$98.8B9
Total debt$124.7B13$230.2B14$216.2B15$203.3B16$189.3B16
Cash & equivalents$34.9B17$23.6B18$30B19$29.9B20$35.9B20
Diluted shares16.86B16.33B15.81B15.41B15.00B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$49.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$74.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$65.82
Debt you’d be carrying
$126.18

10 shares is a claim on $49.14 of net worth that earned you $74.65 and generated $65.82 of cash last year, against $126.18 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
47% avg · 5y
FY21 63%FY22 40%FY23 40%FY24 41%FY25 49%

It earned about 47% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 52% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $66.37 and $93.34 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$92.76
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth2.3%
  • fcfBase$99.6B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$93.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth2.3%
  • fcfBase$99.6B
Earnings Power Value
$66.37
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$97B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$28.94
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years2.3%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $93.34
The three cases
Bear0.0%$83.35
Base2.3%$93.34
Bull7.3%$117.94

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 2.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000320193-23-000106 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000320193-24-000123 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000320193-25-000079 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000320193-23-000106 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000320193-24-000123 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000320193-25-000079 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000320193-23-000106 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000320193-24-000123 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000320193-25-000079 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000320193-23-000106 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000320193-24-000123 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000320193-25-000079 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000320193-22-000108 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000320193-23-000106 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000320193-24-000123 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0000320193-25-000079 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-25 · accession 0000320193-22-000108 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0000320193-23-000106 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000320193-24-000123 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-28 · accession 0000320193-25-000079 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)