MeritValue

ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC

AAPdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'

The thesis, from the filings

ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC earns about 2% on invested capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $7.45 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$11B1$9.15B2$9.21B3$9.09B3$8.6B3
Net income$596.6M4$464.4M5$30M6−$336M6$44M6
Operating cash flow$1.11B7$736.6M8$287M9$85M9−$46M9
Capital expenditure$289.6M10$398.8M11$226M12$181M12$252M12
Free cash flow (derived)$817.4M7$337.8M8$61M9−$96M9−$298M9
Total debt$1.03B13$1.37B14$1.79B15$3.58B16$6.82B16
Cash & equivalents$588.1M17$270.8M17$488M18$1.87B19$3.12B19
Diluted shares64.5M60.7M59.6M59.9M60.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$362.71
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.26
Free cash flow it threw off
−$49.17
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,126.07

10 shares is a claim on $362.71 of net worth that earned you $7.26 and generated −$49.17 of cash last year, against $1,126.07 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY22 17%FY22 10%FY23 -1%FY24 -16%FY26 -1%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 560% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$7.45
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$44M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.53
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001158449-24-000128 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001158449-25-000064 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-051305 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001158449-24-000128 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001158449-25-000064 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-051305 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001158449-24-000128 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001158449-25-000064 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-051305 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001158449-24-000128 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001158449-25-000064 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-051305 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001158449-23-000035 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001158449-24-000128 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001158449-25-000064 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-051305 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001158449-24-000128 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001158449-25-000064 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-051305 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)