AAON, INC.
AAONdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileAAON, INC. earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.56 and $13.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $534.5M1 | $888.8M2 | $1.17B3 | $1.2B3 | $1.44B3 |
| Net income | $58.8M4 | $100.4M5 | $177.6M6 | $168.6M6 | $107.6M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $61.2M7 | $61.3M8 | $158.9M9 | $192.5M9 | $534,0009 |
| Capital expenditure | $55.4M10 | $54M10 | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $5.82M7 | $7.29M8 | — | — | — |
| Total debt | — | — | $011 | $16M12 | $012 |
| Cash & equivalents | $2.86M13 | $5.45M14 | $287,00015 | $14,00016 | $13,00016 |
| Diluted shares | 80.6M | 81.1M | 83.3M | 83.6M | 83.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $107.69 of net worth that earned you $12.95 last year, against $0 of debt.
It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.56 and $13.42 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$7.29M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$7.29M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$107.6M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $1.25 |
| Base | 5.0% | $1.56 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $1.92 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000824142-24-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000824142-25-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000824142-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000824142-24-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000824142-25-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000824142-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000824142-24-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000824142-25-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000824142-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000824142-23-000019 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000824142-25-000039 (DebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000824142-26-000005 (DebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000824142-23-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000824142-24-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000824142-25-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000824142-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)