MeritValue

ATLANTIC AMERICAN CORP

AAMEdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

ATLANTIC AMERICAN CORP earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.77 and $15.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$195.3M1$199.6M2$187.9M3$186.8M4$188.2M4
Net income$12.2M5$4.28M6$1.53M7−$171,0008−$4.27M8
Operating cash flow$8.97M9$1.09M10$6.45M11$2.62M12$4.8M12
Capital expenditure$233,00013$107,00014$126,00015$80,00016$225,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$8.74M9$981,00010$6.33M11$2.54M12$4.58M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$19.3M17$24.8M18$28.9M19$28.3M20$35.6M20
Diluted shares21.8M20.4M20.4M20.4M20.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$48.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.09
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.24
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $48.83 of net worth that earned you −$2.09 and generated $2.24 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY20 11%FY21 5%FY22 4%FY23 3%FY24 -2%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.77 and $15.12 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$15.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$4.58M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$4.58M
Earnings Power Value
$0.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.53M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.06
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.95
Base20.0%$9.06
Bull20.0%$9.06

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001140361-22-011156 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-032391 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-016971 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-010239 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001140361-22-011156 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-032391 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-016971 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-010239 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001140361-22-011156 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-032391 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-016971 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-010239 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001140361-22-011156 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-032391 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-016971 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-010239 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001140361-22-011156 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-032391 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-016971 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-010239 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)