The thesis, from the filings
The applicable estimate puts fair value near $11.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
i. The business — what you’d actually own
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | −$17.8M1 | −$10.9M2 | $56.4M3 | $162.1M3 | $783.4M3 |
| Operating cash flow | $04 | $05 | $06 | $06 | $06 |
| Capital expenditure | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $07 | $08 | $08 | $08 | $08 |
| Diluted shares | 21.5M | 29.8M | 29.8M | 31.7M | 47.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
—
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$165.85
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—
10 shares of this business that earned you $165.85 last year.
iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y
Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Management signal · capital allocation
+120% shares · 5y
Share count is up 120% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
$11.61
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate5.3%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$56.4M
- growthAssumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
Sources — the receipts
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-058333 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-036907 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067559 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-058333 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-036907 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067559 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-036907 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067559 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)