MeritValue

Alcoa Corp

AAdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

Alcoa Corp earns about 5% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 37% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $2.38 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.2B1$12.5B2$10.6B3$11.9B3$12.8B3
Net income$429M4−$123M5−$651M6$60M6$1.16B6
Operating cash flow$920M7$822M8$91M9$622M9$1.19B9
Capital expenditure$390M10$480M11$531M12$580M12$618M12
Free cash flow (derived)$530M7$342M8−$440M9$42M9$567M9
Total debt$3.53B13$3.61B14$3.68B15$5.14B16$4.89B16
Cash & equivalents$1.81B17$1.36B18$944M19$1.14B20$1.6B20
Diluted shares190.0M181.0M178.0M214.0M261.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$234.41
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$44.33
Free cash flow it threw off
$21.72
Debt you’d be carrying
$187.24

10 shares is a claim on $234.41 of net worth that earned you $44.33 and generated $21.72 of cash last year, against $187.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 6%FY23 -5%FY24 2%FY25 13%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+37% shares · 5y

Share count is up 37% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 38% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$42M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$42M
Earnings Power Value
$2.38
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$60M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$47.82
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018069 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024242 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077167 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018069 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024242 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077167 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018069 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024242 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077167 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018069 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024242 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077167 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002319 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018069 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024242 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077167 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-23-002319 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-018069 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024242 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077167 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)