MeritValue

X3 Holdings Co., Ltd.

XTKGFdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

X3 Holdings Co., Ltd. earns about -58% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 50% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$32.1M1$10.5M2$16.8M3$11.6M3$6.29M3
Net income−$9.34M4−$21.5M5−$109.6M6−$76.2M6−$26.2M6
Operating cash flow−$9.76M7−$9.66M8−$11.2M9−$992,4409−$3.24M9
Capital expenditure$2.1M10$2.63M11$679,14612$723,97712$227,82912
Free cash flow (derived)−$11.9M7−$12.3M8−$11.8M9−$1.72M9−$3.47M9
Total debt$71M13$68.7M13—$3.88M14$6.26M15
Cash & equivalents$7M16$9.38M17$2.99M18$4.19M18$2.21M18
Diluted shares205,2683,78710,50376,725307,365

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,154.36
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$852.43
Free cash flow it threw off
−$112.85
Debt you’d be carrying
$203.77

10 shares is a claim on $1,154.36 of net worth that earned you −$852.43 and generated −$112.85 of cash last year, against $203.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-58% avg · 5y
FY21 -5%FY22 -11%FY23 -74%FY24 -145%FY25 -56%

It earned an average -58% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+50% shares · 5y

Share count is up 50% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 91% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037422 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035626 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048038 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037422 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035626 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037422 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035626 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-037422 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035626 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-033931 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048038 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048038 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-22-025838 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-035626 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-048038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)