MeritValue

SIERRA BANCORP

BSRRdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

SIERRA BANCORP earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $30.64 and $101.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$113.1M1$121.8M2$163.1M3$172.3M3$171.4M3
Net income$43M4$33.7M5$34.8M6$40.6M6$42.3M6
Operating cash flow$52.7M7$33.6M8$53.2M9$57.2M9$33.7M9
Capital expenditure$371,00010$1.27M11$1.42M12$1.16M12$1.53M12
Free cash flow (derived)$52.3M7$32.3M8$51.8M9$56M9$32.2M9
Total debt$156.1M13$377.4M14$436.9M15$158.3M16$403M16
Cash & equivalents$257.5M17$77.1M18$78.6M19$100.7M20$135.6M20
Diluted shares15.4M15.0M14.7M14.4M13.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$268.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$31.14
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.67
Debt you’d be carrying
$296.5

10 shares is a claim on $268.42 of net worth that earned you $31.14 and generated $23.67 of cash last year, against $296.5 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 7%FY23 10%FY24 19%FY25 22%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 158% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $30.64 and $101.18 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$101.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth11.8%
  • fcfBase$51.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$68.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth11.8%
  • fcfBase$51.8M
Earnings Power Value
$30.64
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$40.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$43.86
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years11.8%
Discount rate (WACC)9.02%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $68.83
The three cases
Bear0.0%$34.09
Base11.8%$68.83
Bull16.8%$88.43

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 11.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003809 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003207 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021479 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003809 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003207 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021479 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003809 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003207 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021479 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003809 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003207 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021479 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003238 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003809 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003207 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021479 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003238 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003809 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003207 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-021479 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)