MeritValue

AVALON HOLDINGS CORP

AWXdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

AVALON HOLDINGS CORP earns about 1% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$70.4M1$81.2M2$80.9M3$83.8M4$83.5M4
Net income$1.97M5−$583,0006−$1.78M7$1.32M8$321,0008
Operating cash flow$2.36M9$2.26M10$2.36M11$3.37M12$3.78M12
Capital expenditure$4.42M13$6.39M14$3.9M15$2.25M16$1.73M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$2.06M9−$4.13M10−$1.54M11$1.12M12$2.06M12
Total debt$20.5M17$30.3M18$29.8M19$29.2M20$28.6M20
Cash & equivalents$3.25M21$1.62M22$1.19M23$2.8M24$4.11M24
Diluted shares3.9M3.9M3.9M3.9M3.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$98.36
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.82
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.27
Debt you’d be carrying
$73.46

10 shares is a claim on $98.36 of net worth that earned you $0.82 and generated $5.27 of cash last year, against $73.46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 1%FY23 0%FY24 1%FY25 -0%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 40% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.12M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.12M
Earnings Power Value
$0.85
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$321,000
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007669 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008877 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008584 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009091 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007669 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008877 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008584 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009091 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007669 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008877 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008584 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009091 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007669 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008877 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008584 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009091 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007669 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008877 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008584 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009091 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007669 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-008877 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-008584 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-009091 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)