MeritValue

Arena Group Holdings, Inc.

ARENdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Arena Group Holdings, Inc. earns about -25% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 317% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$189.1M1$220.9M2$143.6M3$125.9M4$134.8M4
Net income−$89.9M5−$70.9M6−$55.6M7−$100.7M7$124.9M7
Operating cash flow−$14.7M8−$11.3M9−$24.8M10−$16.1M11$39.2M11
Capital expenditure$377,00012$530,00013—$54,00014$014
Free cash flow (derived)−$15.1M8−$11.8M9—−$16.1M11$39.2M11
Total debt$140.2M15$131.4M16$306.9M17$220.9M18$195.2M18
Cash & equivalents$9.35M19$13.9M20$9.28M21$4.36M22$10.3M22
Diluted shares11.4M17.6M22.3M35.4M47.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$1.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$26.19
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$40.94

10 shares is a claim on −$1.01 of net worth that earned you $26.19 and generated $8.23 of cash last year, against $40.94 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-25% avg · 5y
FY21 -81%FY22 -69%FY23 -6%FY24 7%FY25 22%

It earned an average -25% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+317% shares · 5y

Share count is up 317% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 39% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-009914 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012368 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-004921 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018153 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-009914 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012368 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-028883 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-009914 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012368 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-004921 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018153 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-009914 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012368 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018153 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-009914 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012368 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-004921 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018153 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-009914 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012368 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-004921 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018153 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)