MeritValue

Warner Music Group Corp.

WMGdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

Warner Music Group Corp. earns about 7% on invested capital. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.3B1$5.92B2$6.04B3$6.43B3$6.71B3
Net income$304M4$551M5$430M6$435M6$365M6
Operating cash flow$638M7$742M8$687M9$754M9$678M9
Capital expenditure$93M10$135M11$127M12$116M12$139M12
Free cash flow (derived)$545M7$607M8$560M9$638M9$539M9
Total debt$6.69B13$7.46B14$7.93B15$8.03B16$8.43B16
Cash & equivalents$499M17$584M18$641M19$694M20$532M20
Diluted shares—————

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 9%FY23 7%FY24 8%FY25 6%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Total debt has risen 26% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
no diluted share count — cannot compute per-share value
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
no diluted share count — cannot compute per-share value
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
no diluted share count
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001319161-23-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001319161-24-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001319161-25-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001319161-23-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001319161-24-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001319161-25-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001319161-23-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001319161-24-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001319161-25-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001319161-23-000036 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001319161-24-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001319161-25-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001319161-22-000035 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001319161-23-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001319161-24-000039 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001319161-25-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001319161-22-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001319161-23-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001319161-24-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001319161-25-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)