MeritValue

WERNER ENTERPRISES INC

WERNdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

WERNER ENTERPRISES INC earns about 6% on invested capital, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $19.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.73B1$3.22B2$3.2B3$2.96B3$2.9B3
Net income$259.1M4$241.3M5$112.4M6$34.2M6−$14.4M6
Operating cash flow$332.8M7$448.7M8$474.4M9$329.7M9$181.8M9
Capital expenditure$370.9M10$507.3M11$598.8M12$413.8M12$250.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$38M7−$58.5M8−$124.4M9−$84.1M9−$68.5M9
Total debt$427.5M13$1.39B14$1.3B15$1.3B16$1.5B16
Cash & equivalents$54.2M17$107.2M18$61.7M19$40.8M20$59.9M20
Diluted shares67.9M64.6M63.7M62.7M60.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$224.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.38
Free cash flow it threw off
−$11.31
Debt you’d be carrying
$248.16

10 shares is a claim on $224.87 of net worth that earned you −$2.38 and generated −$11.31 of cash last year, against $248.16 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 9%FY23 5%FY24 1%FY25 -1%

It earned an average 6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 252% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$19.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$112.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000793074-24-000014 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000793074-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000793074-26-000071 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000793074-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000793074-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000793074-26-000071 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000793074-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000793074-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000793074-26-000071 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000793074-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000793074-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000793074-26-000071 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000793074-23-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000793074-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000793074-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000793074-26-000071 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000793074-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000793074-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000793074-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000793074-26-000071 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)