MeritValue

Viking Holdings Ltd

VIKdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Viking Holdings Ltd earns about 33% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 100% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $6.62 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.18B1$4.71B2$5.33B2$6.5B2
Net income$414.7M3−$1.85B4$152.3M4$1.15B4
Operating cash flow$372.7M5$1.37B6$2.08B6$2.56B6
Capital expenditure————
Free cash flow (derived)————
Total debt—$2.01B7$5.48B8$5.67B8
Cash & equivalents$1.25B9$1.51B9$2.49B9$3.8B9
Diluted shares221.9M221.9M364.0M443.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$24.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.88
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$127.75

10 shares is a claim on $24.66 of net worth that earned you $25.88 last year, against $127.75 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
33% avg · 4y
FY22 —FY23 —FY24 17%FY25 49%

It earned an average 33% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+100% shares · 4y

Share count is up 100% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 182% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$6.62
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$283.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$11.94
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036852 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001745201-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036852 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001745201-26-000007 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036852 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001745201-26-000007 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036852 (Borrowings)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001745201-26-000007 (Borrowings)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001745201-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalents)