MeritValue

VICI PROPERTIES INC.

VICIdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

VICI PROPERTIES INC. earns about 7% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 84% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $24.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.51B1$2.6B2$3.61B3$3.85B3$4.01B3
Net income$1.01B4$1.12B5$2.51B6$2.68B6$2.78B6
Operating cash flow$896.4M7$1.94B8$2.18B9$2.38B9$2.51B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$4.69B10$13.7B11$16.7B12$16.7B13$16.8B13
Cash & equivalents$739.6M14$208.9M15$522.6M16$524.6M17$563.5M17
Diluted shares577.1M879.7M1.02B1.05B1.06B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$261.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$26.12
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$157.84

10 shares is a claim on $261.58 of net worth that earned you $26.12 last year, against $157.84 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 5%FY23 8%FY24 6%FY25 6%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+84% shares · 5y

Share count is up 84% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 257% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$24.51
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.51B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$39.19
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001705696-24-000033 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001705696-25-000033 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001705696-26-000034 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001705696-24-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001705696-25-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001705696-26-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001705696-24-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001705696-25-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001705696-26-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001705696-23-000035 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001705696-24-000033 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001705696-25-000033 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001705696-26-000034 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001705696-23-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001705696-24-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001705696-25-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001705696-26-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)