MeritValue

Valneva SE

VALNdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Valneva SE earns about -114% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 65% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue€348.1M1€361.3M2€153.7M3€169.6M3€174.7M3
Net income−€61.4M4−€143.3M5−€101.4M6−€12.2M6−€115.2M6
Operating cash flow€76.9M7−€245.3M8−€202.7M9−€67.2M9−€52.9M9
Capital expenditure€92.2M10€29.2M11€14.2M12€13.9M12€4.42M12
Free cash flow (derived)−€15.3M7−€274.6M8−€217M9−€81.1M9−€57.3M9
Total debt€57.8M13€98.8M14€176.8M15€187.4M16€179.2M16
Cash & equivalents€346.7M17€286.5M18€126.1M18€168.3M18€109.7M18
Diluted shares105.2M138.4M138.9M162.5M173.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€6.12
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−€6.64
Free cash flow it threw off
−€3.3
Debt you’d be carrying
€10.32

10 shares is a claim on €6.12 of net worth that earned you −€6.64 and generated −€3.3 of cash last year, against €10.32 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-114% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -357%FY23 -44%FY24 -5%FY25 -51%

It earned an average -114% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+65% shares · 5y

Share count is up 65% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 210% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012747 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014522 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018808 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001387131-22-003914 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014522 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018808 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012747 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014522 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018808 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012747 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014522 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018808 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009890 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-012747 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-014522 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018808 (Borrowings)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-009890 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-018808 (CashAndCashEquivalents)