MeritValue

Vale S.A.

VALEdata completeness 63%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

Vale S.A. earns about 33% on invested capital, and has bought back 15% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $19,379.19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$54.5B1$43.8B2$41.8B3$38.1B3$38.4B3
Net income$22.4B4$18.8B5$7.98B6$6.17B6$2.35B6
Operating cash flow$25.7B7————
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$13.8B8$12.7B8———
Cash & equivalents$11.7B9$4.74B10$3.61B10$4.95B10$7.37B10
Diluted shares5.0M4.6M4.4M4.3M4.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$78,497.93
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5,509.78
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $78,497.93 of net worth that earned you $5,509.78 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
33% avg · 5y
FY21 70%FY22 39%FY23 24%FY24 23%FY25 11%

It earned an average 33% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−15% shares · 5y

Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$19,379.19
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.98B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001463 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001137 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001292814-26-001844 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-24-001463 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001137 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001292814-26-001844 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-046078 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-23-001516 (Borrowings)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001292814-25-001137 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001292814-26-001844 (CashAndCashEquivalents)