MeritValue

Valaris Ltd

VALdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Valaris Ltd earns about -9% on invested capital, and has bought back 64% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $54.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.43B1$9.2M2$8.4M3$9.6M4$11.9M4
Net income−$4.86B5$176.5M6$865.4M7$373.4M7$982.8M7
Operating cash flow−$251.7M8$127M9$267.5M10$355.4M10$546.2M10
Capital expenditure$93.8M11$207M12$696.1M13$455.1M13$343.5M13
Free cash flow (derived)−$345.5M8−$80M9−$428.6M10−$99.7M10$202.7M10
Total debt$014$542.4M15$1.08B16$1.08B17$1.09B17
Cash & equivalents$325.8M18$724.1M19$620.5M20$368.2M21$599.4M21
Diluted shares198.9M75.6M75.2M72.9M70.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$447.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$138.62
Free cash flow it threw off
$28.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$153.17

10 shares is a claim on $447.05 of net worth that earned you $138.62 and generated $28.59 of cash last year, against $153.17 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-9% avg · 5y
FY20 -94%FY22 16%FY23 3%FY24 13%FY25 15%

It earned an average -9% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−64% shares · 5y

Share count is down 64% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$54.58
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$373.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$118.07
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000314808-23-000018 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000314808-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000314808-25-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000314808-26-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000314808-23-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000314808-25-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000314808-26-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000314808-23-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000314808-25-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000314808-26-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000314808-23-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000314808-25-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000314808-26-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000314808-22-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000314808-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000314808-25-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000314808-26-000029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000314808-22-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000314808-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000314808-25-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000314808-26-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)