MeritValue

USA Rare Earth, Inc.

USARdata completeness 88%2 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

USA Rare Earth, Inc. earns about -176% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 65% over 2 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$1.64M1
Net income−$15.7M2−$297.6M2
Operating cash flow−$13M3−$49M3
Capital expenditure$3.11M4$37.4M4
Free cash flow (derived)−$16.1M3−$86.3M3
Total debt——
Cash & equivalents$16.8M5$359.9M5
Diluted shares59.5M98.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$50.43
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$30.36
Free cash flow it threw off
−$8.81
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $50.43 of net worth that earned you −$30.36 and generated −$8.81 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-176% avg · 2y
FY24 —FY25 -176%

It earned an average -176% on invested capital over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+65% shares · 2y

Share count is up 65% over 2 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 2 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001970622-26-000021 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001970622-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001970622-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001970622-26-000021 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001970622-26-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)