MeritValue

UNITED GUARDIAN INC

UGdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

UNITED GUARDIAN INC earns about 43% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.82 and $9.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.9M1$12.7M2$10.9M3$12.2M4$10.5M4
Net income$4.66M5$2.57M6$2.58M7$3.25M8$2.11M8
Operating cash flow$5.31M9$2.53M10$3.14M11$3.47M12$1.97M12
Capital expenditure$116,37513$75,17914$165,71615$433,07716$58,99516
Free cash flow (derived)$5.2M9$2.45M10$2.98M11$3.03M12$1.91M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$531,21317$830,45218$8.24M19$1.88M20$1.25M20
Diluted shares4.6M4.6M4.6M4.6M4.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$24.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.58
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.15
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $24.45 of net worth that earned you $4.58 and generated $4.15 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
43% avg · 5y
FY21 50%FY22 30%FY23 82%FY24 32%FY25 21%

It earned about 43% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.82 and $9.54 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$8.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.98M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.54
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.98M
Earnings Power Value
$5.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.58M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.54
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.54
Base0.0%$9.54
Bull5.0%$11.78

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001846 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001526 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001611 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-001973 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001846 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001526 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001611 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-001973 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001846 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001526 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001611 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-001973 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001846 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001526 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001611 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-001973 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001846 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-001526 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-001611 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-001973 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)