MeritValue

Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc.

UCTTdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 102026927% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.72 and $5.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.1B1$2.37B2$1.73B2$2.1B2$2.05B3
Net income$119.5M4$40.4M5−$31.1M6$23.7M6−$181.2M6
Operating cash flow$211.6M7$47.2M8$135.9M9$65M9$65.6M9
Capital expenditure$59.3M10$100.1M11$75.8M12$63.5M12$50.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$152.3M7−$52.9M8$60.1M9$1.5M9$15.3M9
Total debt$565.4M13$485.3M14—$499.7M15$481.4M16
Cash & equivalents$466.5M17$358.8M18$307M19$313.9M20$311.8M20
Diluted shares44.445.7M44.7M45.3M45.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$156.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$40
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.38
Debt you’d be carrying
$106.27

10 shares is a claim on $156.95 of net worth that earned you −$40 and generated $3.38 of cash last year, against $106.27 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 7%FY23 6%FY24 3%FY25 -13%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+102026927% shares · 5y

Share count is up 102026927% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 15% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.72 and $5.42 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$15.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$15.3M
Earnings Power Value
$5.42
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$23.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.08
Base0.0%$1.08
Bull5.0%$2.25

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027213 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001628280-25-007865 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-26 · accession 0001628280-26-010744 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027213 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001628280-25-007865 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001628280-26-010744 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027213 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001628280-25-007865 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001628280-26-010744 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027213 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001628280-25-007865 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001628280-26-010744 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-008065 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000950170-24-027213 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-27 · accession 0001628280-25-007865 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-26 · accession 0001628280-26-010744 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005148 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0000950170-24-027213 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001628280-25-007865 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-27 · accession 0001628280-26-010744 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)