MeritValue

uCloudlink Group Inc.

UCLdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

uCloudlink Group Inc. earns about -76% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 32% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.08 and $0.29 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$73.8M1$71.5M1$85.6M2$91.6M2$81.4M2
Net income−$46M3−$19.9M4$2.81M5$4.56M5$6.3M5
Operating cash flow−$21.7M6$4.4M7$6.51M8$9.19M8$3.21M8
Capital expenditure$787,0009$411,00010$2.07M11$4M11$924,00011
Free cash flow (derived)−$22.5M6$3.99M7$4.44M8$5.19M8$2.28M8
Total debt$3.18M12$2.88M13$5.3M14$6.96M15$8.86M16
Cash & equivalents$7.87M17$14.9M18$23.4M19$30.1M20$32.8M20
Diluted shares286.0M312.5M371.7M376.3M378.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.17
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.06
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.23

10 shares is a claim on $0.76 of net worth that earned you $0.17 and generated $0.06 of cash last year, against $0.23 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-76% avg · 5y
FY21 -229%FY22 -214%FY23 18%FY24 21%FY25 22%

It earned about -76% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+32% shares · 5y

Share count is up 32% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 179% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.08 and $0.29 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$4.44M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$4.44M
Earnings Power Value
$0.08
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.81M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$0.19
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.23
Base5.0%$0.27
Bull10.0%$0.32

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-023866 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035481 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-026860 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-002946 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035481 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-026860 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-002946 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035481 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-026860 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-002946 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035481 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-023866 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-026860 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-002946 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035481 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035481 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-023866 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-026860 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-002946 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-035481 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)