MeritValue

TXNM ENERGY INC

TXNMdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TXNM ENERGY INC earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 19% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $18.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.74B1$2.25B2$1.91B3$1.96B3$2.14B3
Net income$211.8M4$185.2M5$106.9M6$258.7M6$169.8M6
Operating cash flow$547.9M7$567.3M8$551.2M9$508.2M9$584.5M9
Capital expenditure$935M10$912.6M11$1.08B12$1.25B12$1.2B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$387.1M7−$345.3M8−$524.6M9−$738.9M9−$611.4M9
Total debt$3.76B13$4.31B14$4.78B15$5.53B16$5.6B16
Cash & equivalents$1.1M17$4.08M18$2.22M19$4.5M20$18.3M20
Diluted shares86.1M86.2M86.4M90.6M102.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$332.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.59
Free cash flow it threw off
−$59.71
Debt you’d be carrying
$546.91

10 shares is a claim on $332.45 of net worth that earned you $16.59 and generated −$59.71 of cash last year, against $546.91 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 5%FY23 4%FY24 3%FY25 2%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+19% shares · 5y

Share count is up 19% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 49% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$18.74
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$185.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.27
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001108426-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001108426-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001108426-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001108426-24-000008 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001108426-25-000014 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001108426-26-000006 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001108426-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001108426-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001108426-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001108426-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001108426-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001108426-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001108426-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001108426-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001108426-25-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001108426-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001108426-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001108426-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001108426-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001108426-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)