Ternium S.A.
TXdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Ternium S.A. earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.12 and $3.49 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.1B1 | $16.4B2 | $17.6B3 | $17.6B3 | $15.6B3 |
| Net income | $3.83B4 | $1.77B5 | $676M6 | −$53.7M6 | $425.2M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $2.68B7 | $2.75B8 | $2.5B9 | $1.91B9 | $2.31B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $523.6M10 | $580.6M10 | $1.2B11 | $1.82B12 | $2.66B12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $2.15B7 | $2.17B8 | $1.3B9 | $85M9 | −$345.5M9 |
| Total debt | $1.48B13 | $1.03B14 | $2.15B15 | $2.23B16 | $2.42B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $1.28B17 | $1.65B18 | $1.85B18 | $1.69B18 | $1.53B18 |
| Diluted shares | 2.00B | 2.00B | 2.00B | 2.00B | 2.00B |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $59.58 of net worth that earned you $2.12 and generated −$1.72 of cash last year, against $12.07 of debt.
It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 64% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.12 and $3.49 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$85M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$85M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$676M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $0.16 |
| Base | 0.0% | $0.16 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $0.31 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001342874-24-000018 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001342874-25-000024 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001342874-26-000020 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001342874-24-000018 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001342874-25-000024 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001342874-26-000020 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001342874-24-000018 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001342874-25-000024 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001342874-26-000020 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001342874-23-000021 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001342874-24-000018 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001342874-26-000020 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001342874-23-000021 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001342874-24-000018 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001342874-25-000024 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001342874-26-000020 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001342874-25-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001342874-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalents)