Twin Hospitality Group Inc.

TWNPQdata completeness 88%2 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Twin Hospitality Group Inc. earns about -6% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$230.9M1$353.8M1
Net income−$13.8M2−$48.2M2
Operating cash flow$6.05M3−$15M3
Capital expenditure$23.9M4$25.1M4
Free cash flow (derived)−$17.8M3,4−$40.2M3,4
Total debt$687.8M5,6,7$831.4M5,6,7
Cash & equivalents——
Diluted shares5,0005,000

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$169,218
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$96,340
Free cash flow it threw off
−$80,350
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.66M

10 shares is a claim on −$169,218 of net worth that earned you −$96,340 and generated −$80,350 of cash last year, against $1.66M of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-6% avg · 2y
FY23 —FY24 -6%

It earned an average -6% on invested capital over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 2y

Share count is roughly flat over 2 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 21% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth —

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K filed 2025-02-28 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-29 · accession 0001628280-25-009131 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K filed 2025-02-28 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-29 · accession 0001628280-25-009131 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K filed 2025-02-28 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-29 · accession 0001628280-25-009131 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K filed 2025-02-28 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-29 · accession 0001628280-25-009131 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 10-K filed 2025-02-28 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-29 · accession 0001628280-25-009131 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  6. 10-K filed 2025-02-28 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-29 · accession 0001628280-25-009131 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  7. 10-K filed 2025-02-28 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-29 · accession 0001628280-25-009131 (LongTermDebt)