Twin Hospitality Group Inc.

TWNPQdata completeness 88%2 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'cash'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Twin Hospitality Group Inc. earns about -6% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2023	FY 2024
Revenue	$230.9M¹	$353.8M¹
Net income	−$13.8M²	−$48.2M²
Operating cash flow	$6.05M³	−$15M³
Capital expenditure	$23.9M⁴	$25.1M⁴
Free cash flow (derived)	−$17.8M³	−$40.2M³
Total debt	$687.8M⁵	$831.4M⁵
Cash & equivalents	—	—
Diluted shares	5,000	5,000

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

−$169,218

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$96,340

Free cash flow it threw off

−$80,350

Debt you’d be carrying

$1.66M

10 shares is a claim on −$169,218 of net worth that earned you −$96,340 and generated −$80,350 of cash last year, against $1.66M of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on invested capital

-6% avg · 2y

FY23 —FY24 -6%

It earned an average -6% on invested capital over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

−0% shares · 2y

Share count is roughly flat over 2 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 21% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

only 2 years of net income (need ≥3)

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009131 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009131 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009131 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009131 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009131 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)