MeritValue

Top Wealth Group Holding Ltd

TWGdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Top Wealth Group Holding Ltd earns about 32% on invested capital, and has bought back 97% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $24.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$19,6151$3.14M2$16.9M3$4.75M3$9.13M3
Net income−$10,9954$1.92M5$2.44M6−$2.02M6$3.19M6
Operating cash flow$63,5157$120,2608−$863,6169$887,5549−$6.19M9
Capital expenditure$62,72310$481,17311———
Free cash flow (derived)$7927−$360,9138———
Total debt——$777,89312—$147,17913
Cash & equivalents$1,38514$217,38415$134,35016$42,38016$2.39M16
Diluted shares27.0M27.0M300,000380,419823,793

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$336.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$38.72
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.79

10 shares is a claim on $336.99 of net worth that earned you $38.72 last year, against $1.79 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
32% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 84%FY23 44%FY24 -9%FY25 10%

It earned an average 32% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−97% shares · 5y

Share count is down 97% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 81% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$24.12
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.92M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$54.17
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-047264 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-044770 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-057962 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-047264 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-044770 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-057962 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-047264 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-044770 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-057962 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-047264 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-044770 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-044770 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-057962 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-047264 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-044770 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-057962 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)