MeritValue

Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc.

TVRDdata completeness 63%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Tvardi Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -60% on equity, and has bought back 85% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$23M1$41.9M2$21M2$7.14M2—
Net income−$88.4M3−$85.5M4−$118.5M4−$29.4M5−$18.2M5
Operating cash flow−$60.1M6−$78.7M7−$92.1M7−$18.3M8−$23.5M8
Capital expenditure$39,0009$43,00010$2.38M10$1.05M10—
Free cash flow (derived)−$60.1M6−$78.8M7−$94.5M7−$19.4M8—
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$13.5M11$63.7M12$51.8M13$31.6M14$20.7M14
Diluted shares50.7M4.5M4.5M2.6M7.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$26.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$23.4
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $26.91 of net worth that earned you −$23.4 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-60% avg · 5y
FY21 -39%FY22 -54%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 -87%

It earned an average -60% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−85% shares · 5y

Share count is down 85% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002609 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002705 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002609 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002705 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037729 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002609 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002705 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037729 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002609 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002705 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002913 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002609 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002705 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037729 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)