MeritValue

Trevi Therapeutics, Inc.

TRVIdata completeness 75%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Trevi Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -37% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 490% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$33.9M1−$29.2M2−$29.1M3−$47.9M4−$42.8M4
Operating cash flow−$28.9M5−$28.2M6−$31.7M7−$38.3M8−$42.1M8
Capital expenditure—$159,0009$137,00010$35,00011$12,00011
Free cash flow (derived)—−$28.3M6−$31.8M7−$38.3M8−$42.1M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$36.8M12$12.6M13$32.4M14$34.1M15$18.9M15
Diluted shares22.8M64.5M99.0M102.0M134.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$13.6
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.17
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.12
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $13.6 of net worth that earned you −$3.17 and generated −$3.12 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-37% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -23%FY23 -45%FY24 -58%FY25 -21%

It earned an average -37% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+490% shares · 5y

Share count is up 490% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008472 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034167 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-041194 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110783 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008472 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034167 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-041194 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110783 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034167 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-041194 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110783 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008472 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034167 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-041194 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-110783 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)