MeritValue

TUTOR PERINI CORP

TPCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TUTOR PERINI CORP earns about 0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $283.03 and $518.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.64B1$3.79B2$3.88B3$4.33B3$5.54B3
Net income$91.9M4−$210M5−$171.2M6−$163.7M6$80.4M6
Operating cash flow−$148.5M7$207M8$308.5M9$503.5M9$748.1M9
Capital expenditure$38.6M10$59.8M11$53M12$37.4M12$180.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$187M7$147.2M8$255.5M9$466.1M9$567.2M9
Total debt$1.99B13$1.92B14$1.8B15$1.07B16$814.7M16
Cash & equivalents$202.2M17$259.4M18$380.6M19$455.1M20$734.6M20
Diluted shares51.4M51.3M51.8M52.3M53.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$228.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.06
Free cash flow it threw off
$106.19
Debt you’d be carrying
$152.54

10 shares is a claim on $228.15 of net worth that earned you $15.06 and generated $106.19 of cash last year, against $152.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 -5%FY23 -3%FY24 -8%FY25 11%

It earned about 0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 59% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $283.03 and $518.99 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$518.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$466.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$283.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$466.1M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$27.84
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $283.03
The three cases
Bear0.0%$123.19
Base20.0%$283.03
Bull20.0%$283.03

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000077543-24-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000077543-25-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000077543-26-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000077543-24-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000077543-25-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000077543-26-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000077543-24-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000077543-25-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000077543-26-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000077543-24-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000077543-25-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000077543-26-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000077543-23-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000077543-24-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000077543-25-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000077543-26-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000077543-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000077543-24-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000077543-25-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000077543-26-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)