MeritValue

Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp.

TNXPdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. earns about -70% on equity, and has bought back 25% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue——$7.77M1$10.1M2$13.1M2
Net income−$92.3M3−$110.2M4−$116.7M5−$130M6−$124M6
Operating cash flow−$75.6M7−$98.1M8−$102M9−$60.9M10−$99.8M10
Capital expenditure$35.3M11$48.1M12$7.9M13$120,00014$3.37M14
Free cash flow (derived)−$110.9M7−$146.2M8−$109.9M9−$61M10−$103.2M10
Total debt——$19.9M15$16.1M16—
Cash & equivalents$178.7M17$120.2M18$24.9M19$98.8M20$207.6M20
Diluted shares11.4M5.8M7,925736,3398.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$288.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$145.71
Free cash flow it threw off
−$121.27
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $288.03 of net worth that earned you −$145.71 and generated −$121.27 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-70% avg · 5y
FY21 -42%FY22 -53%FY23 -111%FY24 -93%FY25 -51%

It earned an average -70% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−25% shares · 5y

Share count is down 25% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 19% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-25-002786 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-005730 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001387131-23-003377 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001999371-24-004297 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-25-002786 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-005730 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001387131-23-003377 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001999371-24-004297 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-25-002786 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-005730 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001387131-23-003377 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001999371-24-004297 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-25-002786 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-005730 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-25-002786 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-005730 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001387131-23-003377 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001999371-24-004297 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-25-002786 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-005730 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)