MeritValue

TMD Energy Ltd

TMDEdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TMD Energy Ltd earns about 14% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$702.1M1$633.1M2$688.6M2
Net income$2.37M3$2M4$1.88M4
Operating cash flow$518,5565$654,2196−$24.3M6
Capital expenditure$6.61M7$3.15M8$3.75M8
Free cash flow (derived)−$6.09M5−$2.5M6−$28M6
Total debt—$31M9$81.8M10
Cash & equivalents—$4.83M11$16.1M12
Diluted shares20.0M20.0M20.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.94
Free cash flow it threw off
−$14.02
Debt you’d be carrying
$40.92

10 shares is a claim on $8.94 of net worth that earned you $0.94 and generated −$14.02 of cash last year, against $40.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 3y
FY22 26%FY23 11%FY24 6%

It earned an average 14% on invested capital over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 3y

Share count is roughly flat over 3 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 164% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$1.03
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.35
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-010134 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-023294 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-010134 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-023294 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-010134 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-023294 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-010134 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-023294 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-010134 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 20-F/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-023294 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-010134 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 20-F/A · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-023294 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)