MeritValue

Talen Energy Corp

TLNdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Talen Energy Corp earns about 4% on invested capital, and has bought back 45% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2014FY 2015FY 2022FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.58B1$4.48B1$3.21B2$1.57B3$2.52B3
Net income$410M4−$341M4−$1.29B5$998M6−$219M6
Operating cash flow$462M7$768M7$187M8$256M9$704M9
Capital expenditure$416M10$451M10$232M11$85M12$98M12
Free cash flow (derived)$46M7$317M7−$45M8$171M9$606M9
Total debt$5.07B13$9.01B13—$6.01B14$13.6B14
Cash & equivalents$352M15$141M15$988M16$328M17$689M17
Diluted shares83.5M109.9M056.5M45.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$239.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$47.93
Free cash flow it threw off
$132.63
Debt you’d be carrying
$2,981.27

10 shares is a claim on $239.21 of net worth that earned you −$47.93 and generated $132.63 of cash last year, against $2,981.27 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY14 3%FY15 -1%FY22 —FY24 14%FY25 -1%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−45% shares · 5y

Share count is down 45% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 169% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$171M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$171M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2014-12-31 · accession 0001622536-16-000111 (RegulatedAndUnregulatedOperatingRevenue)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008786 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001622536-26-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2014-12-31 · accession 0001622536-16-000111 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008786 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001622536-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2014-12-31 · accession 0001622536-16-000111 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008786 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001622536-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2014-12-31 · accession 0001622536-16-000111 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008786 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001622536-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2014-12-31 · accession 0001622536-16-000111 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001622536-26-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2014-12-31 · accession 0001622536-16-000111 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001622536-26-000017 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001622536-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)