MeritValue

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

TARSdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. earns about -101% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 103% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$57M1$25.8M2$17.4M3$183M3$451.4M3
Net income−$13.8M4−$62.1M5−$135.9M6−$115.6M6−$66.4M6
Operating cash flow$3.75M7−$49M8−$117.5M9−$83M9−$12.5M9
Capital expenditure$586,00010$506,00011$1.5M12$1.57M12$9.86M12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.16M7−$49.5M8−$119M9−$84.6M9−$22.3M9
Total debt$013$38.9M14$59.6M15$143.7M16$144.9M16
Cash & equivalents$171.3M17$71.7M18$224.9M19$94.8M20$183.6M20
Diluted shares20.6M24.6M29.4M37.6M41.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$82.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$15.9
Free cash flow it threw off
−$5.34
Debt you’d be carrying
$34.67

10 shares is a claim on $82.19 of net worth that earned you −$15.9 and generated −$5.34 of cash last year, against $34.67 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-101% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -30%FY23 -331%FY24 -31%FY25 -14%

It earned an average -101% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+103% shares · 5y

Share count is up 103% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819790-23-000007 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819790-25-000011 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819790-26-000019 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819790-23-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819790-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819790-26-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819790-23-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819790-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819790-26-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819790-23-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819790-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819790-26-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819790-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819790-24-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819790-25-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001819790-26-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001819790-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001819790-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819790-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001819790-26-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)