MeritValue

Synchrony Financial

SYFdata completeness 75%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Synchrony Financial earns about 57% on invested capital, and has bought back 34% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $96.98 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$4.22B1$3.02B2$2.24B3$3.5B3$3.55B3
Operating cash flow$7.1B4$6.69B5$8.59B6$9.85B6$9.85B6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$14.5B7$14.2B8$16B9$15.5B10$15.2B10
Cash & equivalents$8.34B11$10.3B12$14.3B13$14.7B13$15B13
Diluted shares569.3M483.4M423.5M400.6M373.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$448.41
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$95
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$406.04

10 shares is a claim on $448.41 of net worth that earned you $95 last year, against $406.04 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
57% avg · 5y
FY21 25%FY22 25%FY23 33%FY24 100%FY25 105%

It earned an average 57% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−34% shares · 5y

Share count is down 34% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$96.98
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.5B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$96.76
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601712-24-000047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001601712-25-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001601712-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601712-24-000047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001601712-25-000044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001601712-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601712-23-000037 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001601712-24-000047 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001601712-25-000044 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001601712-26-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001601712-24-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001601712-25-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001601712-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)