MeritValue

Swvl Holdings Corp

SWVLdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Swvl Holdings Corp earns about -513% on invested capital, and has bought back 90% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$15M1$25.6M2$43M3$22.9M3$17.2M3
Net income−$29.7M4−$141.4M5−$116.5M6$3.06M6−$10.3M6
Operating cash flow−$30.5M7−$62.1M8−$117.7M9−$9.11M9−$3.57M9
Capital expenditure$212,98510$319,47111$817,58612$17,23712—
Free cash flow (derived)−$30.8M7−$62.5M8−$118.5M9−$9.12M9—
Total debt————$158,20313
Cash & equivalents$10.3M14$9.53M15$1.54M16$2.92M16$4.96M16
Diluted shares83.5M6.8M6.8M6.8M8.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$11.94
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$0.18

10 shares is a claim on $2.64 of net worth that earned you −$11.94 last year, against $0.18 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-513% avg · 5y
FY20 -236%FY21 —FY22 -1520%FY23 217%FY24 —

It earned an average -513% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−90% shares · 5y

Share count is down 90% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-112998 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054345 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-030732 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-112998 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054345 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-030732 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-112998 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054345 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-030732 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-112998 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054345 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-030732 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-030732 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-112998 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054345 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-030732 (CashAndCashEquivalents)