MeritValue

Starwood Real Estate Income Trust, Inc.

SWDSdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Starwood Real Estate Income Trust, Inc. earns about -9% on equity, but has diluted owners by 96% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$642.9M1$1.58B2$1.75B3$1.69B3$1.58B3
Net income−$302.3M4−$65.7M5−$649.7M6−$684.9M6−$691.6M6
Operating cash flow$233.1M7$594.9M8$556.6M9$429.2M9$345.6M9
Capital expenditure$40.4M10$143.3M11$180.2M12$185.5M12$173.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$192.7M7$451.6M8$376.4M9$243.7M9$172.1M9
Total debt$11.3B13$14.4B14$13B15$12.7B16$12B16
Cash & equivalents$274.8M17$643.5M18$295M19$281.5M19$200.8M19
Diluted shares203.3M469.9M467.3M408.2M397.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$97.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$17.39
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.33
Debt you’d be carrying
$300.74

10 shares is a claim on $97.74 of net worth that earned you −$17.39 and generated $4.33 of cash last year, against $300.74 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-9% avg · 5y
FY21 -5%FY22 -1%FY23 -9%FY24 -13%FY25 -18%

It earned an average -9% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+96% shares · 5y

Share count is up 96% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.1%
  • fcfBase$243.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.1%
  • fcfBase$243.7M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034645 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043128 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-117060 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034645 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043128 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-117060 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034645 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043128 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-117060 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034645 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043128 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-117060 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008601 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034645 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043128 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-117060 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-034645 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-043128 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-117060 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)