MeritValue

CHEMICAL & MINING CO OF CHILE INC

SQMdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CHEMICAL & MINING CO OF CHILE INC earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $18.03 and $46.7 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$1.82B1$2.86B2$10.7B3$7.47B3$4.53B3
Net income$164.5M4$585.5M5$3.91B6$923.2M6$685.1M6
Operating cash flow$182.2M7$822.5M8$4.08B9−$196.6M9$1.27B9
Capital expenditure$322.2M10$464.7M11$905.2M12$1.1B12$971.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$140M7$357.8M8$3.17B9−$1.3B9$302.9M9
Total debt$2.81B13$4.08B14$4.32B15$5.01B16$6.1B16
Cash & equivalents$509.1M17$1.52B18$2.66B18$1.04B18$1.38B18
Diluted shares263.2M278.2M285.6M285.6M285.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$180.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.99
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.6
Debt you’d be carrying
$213.69

10 shares is a claim on $180.68 of net worth that earned you $23.99 and generated $10.6 of cash last year, against $213.69 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY20 4%FY21 10%FY22 60%FY23 17%FY24 8%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 117% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $18.03 and $46.7 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$46.7
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$302.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$18.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$302.9M
Earnings Power Value
$24.86
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$685.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $18.03
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$1.39
Base20.0%$18.03
Bull20.0%$18.03

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-012434 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000909037-24-000033 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000909037-25-000020 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-012434 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000909037-24-000033 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000909037-25-000020 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-012434 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000909037-24-000033 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000909037-25-000020 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F/A · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-012434 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000909037-24-000033 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000909037-25-000020 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001575872-22-000320 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-012434 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000909037-24-000033 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000909037-25-000020 (Borrowings)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0000909037-24-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000909037-25-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalents)